The World Trade Organization (WTO) upgraded its forecast for trade in goods this year due to improvements from June, but saw a more muted rebound in 2021 with further lockdowns from a second wave of COVID infections posing clear risks.
The WTO said that global merchandise trade would fall by 9.2% this year and then increase by 7.2% in 2021. Europe and the Americas would be heaviest hit this year.
WTO had an earlier forecast in April of an “ugly” 13-32% decline this year before a rebound of 21-24% in 2021. The forecast suggested the drop would not be as steep as the 12.8% decline in goods trade during the global financial crisis in 2009, although the recovery would fall short of the 13.8% surge of 2010.
The Geneva-based trade body said aggressive fiscal and monetary policies had supported demand. It also noted that consumers had shifted spending from services, notably travel, to goods.
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